tony's blog

Thursday, August 11, 2011

Life's a Riot


So we have more gloomy economic data to contend with on top of the riots and turmoil in the markets? Manufacturing data fell by 0.4% in June and Britain’s deficit in goods trade with the rest of the world widened from £8.5bn to £8.9bn in June. Not looking good and I guess it’s hardly surprising that we are starting to hear more of the words ‘double dip’ from many analysts. Oh to be in England…! Then again the rest of Europe and the US don’t look so hot either at the moment either.

With this backdrop it is hardly surprising that Mervyn King and his friends at the Bank of England have revised UK growth forecast for the year from an always optimistic 1.8% to a not so healthy 1.4%. I predicted this would happen in June and  sadly I think he may have to revise this forecast down again in the next couple of months; things don’t look to be getting better anytime soon and not only do we have to look at economic data at home but what’s happening overseas also. Surely it’s only time before the Office of Budget and Responsibility will follow suit very soon forecast down from its buoyant forecast of 1.7% for the year. 

For me, I think 1.1% for the year is more likely a figure. And that’s me being optimistic!

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